UK consumer price index inflation dropped to 8.7%, the lowest since March 2022, but that was still higher than the average expectation of 8.2% in a poll of economists. Core inflation – which strips out volatile food, drink, energy and tobacco – actually rose, while food price inflation remained at 19%, near 45-year highs.
","elementId":"c662e70b-df23-4dfa-aa37-d849893cb939"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"That pushed up expectations of further interest rate increases among financial market participants. Interest rate swaps suggested that rates are more likely than not to rise to 5.5% in November.
","elementId":"366373a7-9726-4333-b690-2537b9938eb0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"UK financial markets have certainly adjusted to the prospect of higher rates – which would likely lead to less economic activity and lower profits. The FTSE 100 has dropped by 1.9% today with under an hour of trading remaining, while the FTSE 250 index of mid-sized companies has dropped by 1.6%.
","elementId":"4c538d5b-5073-4373-a29c-9fd725808696"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"On bond markets, the yield on 10-year gilts (UK government debt) has risen significantly to 4.3%, its highest level since the response to the disastrous mini-budget helmed by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng.
","elementId":"57a97e09-192b-4bd9-8b54-ca6dca41464f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Andrew Sentance, a senior adviser at Cambridge Econometrics and a former member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, expects high rates in the UK for a long while yet. He said:
","elementId":"94e138e3-8ac5-4fc2-97d4-6fa95ecb9b24"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement","html":"\n","url":"https://twitter.com/asentance/status/1661304394833448960","id":"1661304394833448960","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"bc46e375-645c-419e-9d87-a0da38087716"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"We are still not on top of inflation in the UK, as I have warned for some time. Markets now expecting UK Bank Rate to peak at close to 5.5 percent, but could still go higher if evidence of strong underlying inflationary pressures persists. https://t.co/OPmla75Ukk
— Andrew Sentance (@asentance) May 24, 2023
In other business news from today:
","elementId":"7fc14b16-0263-4ecf-9bea-d5da8f91e529"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"- \n
Strong sales of dresses, denim and office wear as well as more affordable food helped lift sales and profits at Marks & Spencer in the past year despite the effects of inflation on its business and customers.
\n Severn Trent has increased its dividend to more than £260m, despite growing public anger over payments made by water suppliers to their shareholders and executives.
\n A ballot of Royal Mail workers on a deal struck last month to end a bitter dispute over pay, jobs and working conditions has been suspended as the row between the postal firm and its union threatened to reignite.
\n SSE has set out plans to invest £40bn in clean energy over the next 10 years as it reported a near-doubling of its annual profits compared with the year before thanks in part to its fossil fuel power stations.
\n Virgin Orbit, the satellite launch company founded by British billionaire Richard Branson, will permanently cease operations, just months after a major mission failure.
\n
You can continue to read our live coverage from around the world:
","elementId":"e66e2819-d596-4dc8-b51f-1cb855ccc9c2"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"In the UK, Boris Johnson claims the publication of the Covid inquiry ruling unfairly implies he is holding back documents
","elementId":"4feec5a2-a39d-46cf-a955-01592a0be0a2"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/24/boris-johnson-police-partygate-covid-lockdown-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-pmqs-uk-politics-live","text":"Boris Johnson claims publication of Covid inquiry ruling unfairly implies he is holding back documents – UK politics live","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"330b6d26-d544-4f1d-8880-de62dfb7c868"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"In the US, Ron DeSantis is to kick off well-funded campaign to become the next US president
","elementId":"94d03f6f-664e-4d45-b62b-3779d732cff0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/may/24/ron-desantis-2024-musk-twitter-debt-ceiling-deadline-live-updates","text":"Ron DeSantis to kick off well-funded campaign to become the next US president – live","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"dc95c76b-d81d-482a-873c-be65cbfdbd77"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"In our coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian ministry of defence says Ukraine made unsuccessful attack on Black Sea fleet reconnaissance ship
","elementId":"16c357ae-8a01-4e44-bd5f-fbe76d5aece7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-beijing-and-moscow-to-cooperate-at-new-level-west-prepared-to-support-kyiv-for-years-says-sunak","text":"Russia-Ukraine war live: Russian ministry of defence says Ukraine made unsuccessful attack on Black Sea fleet reconnaissance ship","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"11652662-f8fb-404a-b697-6c30cb6d51dc"}],"attributes":{"pinned":true,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684937713000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"15.15BST","blockLastUpdated":1684939827000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"15.50BST","blockFirstPublished":1684939827000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"15.50BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"15.50","title":"Closing summary: Inflation data shock raises prospect of higher UK rates","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646e11ce8f087efbd541dbf4","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has waded into a growing debate over the ability of British companies to secure investment in the City of London, amid concerns over a lack of productive investment by financial firms.
","elementId":"a05975c6-9882-4e4d-911e-19116b9cf5b1"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"It comes as City bosses warn regulatory reforms are required from the government, as the UK risks falling behind other global financial centres after Brexit.
","elementId":"8dff1077-d087-4a6f-a51a-58ccb58ba191"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Saying that “sensible” regulatory reforms to encourage risk taking by firms were required, Bailey warned: “If we don’t do that I think we’ve got a problem on our hands, going back to the point about the potential growth rate of the economy.”
","elementId":"b5ed5331-3f3e-4727-b344-60228f9a1344"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The Bank’s governor said one potential reason holding back risk-taking investment in British firms was the prevalence of small pension funds in the UK. “The problem with that world is the economies of scale,” he said at an event in London held by the Wall Street Journal. “[The UK] has probably become too focused on relatively low-yielding assets.”
","elementId":"12b51b39-f33a-4f83-9398-505d6d1a14eb"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"“I think we’ve got to think about what is the right structure and operating model for that world to get the right balance between saving, risk taking and productive investment.”
","elementId":"958045bf-76e0-4065-bab4-2241b8d2a2c4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Immediately after Bailey on the panel, Legal & General chief executive Nigel Wilson welcomed his comments about the UK pension system – and also highlighted a more general problem with developing promising research into larger businesses.
","elementId":"f1f37d16-2765-4e3d-86f4-af1d2668b2f3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"\n","elementId":"c331e4d8-33de-450a-aedd-f04cff173560"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"We have a disproportionately large pension system in the UK, but we’re not directing it to the right place.
\n
\n","elementId":"c20598ac-4f9f-44fd-af80-e966c7c7862b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement","html":"Relatively speaking we have the best IP in the world… In terms of the R in R&D [research and development] I’d give us an A*; in terms of the D I’d give us a D.
\n
No inflation spiral
","elementId":"d3f4887e-45c5-4a37-a48e-d5ee8f0f2164"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Bailey also suggested it is too soon to know if the government will meet its target of halving inflation this year.
","elementId":"b4dd024f-8c35-40c3-9721-ff4e12914ce8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Speaking at an event in London hosted by the Wall Street Journal, the Bank of England governor said forecasts made by the central bank earlier this month showed that Rishi Sunak was on track to meet his central economic goal.
","elementId":"517a6c87-1b15-46ba-a555-c2b26109c097"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"However, asked whether April’s inflation figures changed the dynamic, he added: “I think we’ve obviously got to see how the news and the evidence unfolds.”
","elementId":"6ef39bcd-1fa6-4bb9-88aa-720fc0b756b0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The Bank’s governor warned headline inflation was taking longer than expected to fall back to sustainable levels amid the impact from soaring food prices. “I have to say it is taking longer, and it is higher that was expected certainly earlier this year.”
","elementId":"53b2cb71-2655-4303-b689-437ca63e25e0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Bailey dismissed the idea that Britain was experiencing a wage-price spiral, when workers demanding higher pay settlements adds to inflationary pressure. However, he warned that pay deals were contributing to the “stickiness” of the UK’s highest inflation rate in decades.
","elementId":"2afef8c6-3417-47c1-ad58-ca3d979a74a0"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"\n","elementId":"7f39ed93-2bec-4797-bd90-b3a5856ab906"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684935118000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"14.31BST","blockLastUpdated":1684936718000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"14.58BST","blockFirstPublished":1684936719000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"14.58BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"14.58","title":"Andrew Bailey: City focus on safe assets holding back growth-boosting investments","contributors":[{"name":"Richard Partington","imageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard-Partington.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7a0cd4e01f7289ba75909509b7b8da7c","largeImageUrl":"https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Richard_Partington,_R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bb38e72cdfabfe7563b4036c49593334"}],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 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don’t think spiral is the right word to use. That gives you a connotation of things that are marching upwards. It’s the stickiness downwards and the question of how fast is it going to come down.... Bear in mind that we’ve got a very tight labour market in this country.
\n
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said the UK is not in a wage-price “spiral”, in an interview on inflation on Wednesday.
","elementId":"5f33fbdb-adef-4496-a714-760af885f375"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Bailey said that he does not think “spiral” is the right word to use, when asked about core inflation and wages at an event run by the Wall Street Journal.
","elementId":"0d703131-8e7d-44b0-bdcf-ecdd573facbd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"It was too soon to know if the government’s goal of halving inflation this year had been put in peril by today’s surprisingly high inflation reading, he said. Inflation at 8.7% was higher than the 8.2% expected by economists, although Bailey said it was still a welcome decline from above 10%.
","elementId":"e25d19b0-6c10-4e5b-80eb-6a8b3be5a082"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"However, food inflation is taking longer to fall than expected, he said.
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main postal workers’ union has said it will not put an agreement with Royal Mail to its members for confirmation until the company stops “attacks” on its members.
","elementId":"7f04d485-aef4-4079-9bbe-0818a4379c3b"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The Communication Workers Union (CWU) on Wednesday said it will suspend the previous timetable for a member vote until it is satisfied.
","elementId":"0c98b49a-60c9-4dc9-aa10-478ec88f1527"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Royal Mail agreed a new deal with the union in April after months of hard-fought and often acrimonious negotiations. Royal Mail blamed the strikes for a £1bn loss reported last week, and Simon Thompson resigned earlier in the month.
","elementId":"15f198f1-bfdc-4130-8ce5-c4023ecbca08"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"In a letter to its members, Dave Ward and Andy Furey, the union’s general secretary and his deputy, wrote:
","elementId":"4656c7b6-1671-441c-bdaf-c94b628847fc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"\n","elementId":"124edd56-6b08-45d0-89a3-f994ea26bfc7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The position reached with Royal Mail Group is the right agreement for this moment in time. Set against the most brutal dispute in our history, a self-inflicted but very real financial crisis for the company and jointly agreed need for change, this agreement will secure the future of the company, jobs, and the service.
\nHowever, what has become clear is the environment we are attempting to deliver this agreement in remains toxic.
\n
The CWU said it still backed the deal, but wanted Royal Mail to bring in “immediate measures” to “restore quality of service”. That would likely include steps to address missed delivery targets highlighted this month by Ofcom, the regulator.
","elementId":"1ad9ea0a-fa3b-4cee-85cd-ed3358438fb7"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The union also wanted a “mass zoom meeting” between the company and every CWU representative, and for the company to give every branch their proposed finishing times.
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Mail Group National Agreement - ballot timetable suspended.
— The CWU (@CWUnews) May 24, 2023
We will put the agreement out to vote - but only when Royal Mail stop their attacks on our members.
Full info: https://t.co/3a6bdFRegg
SSE has reported a near doubling of its annual profits compared with the year before after soaring energy market prices led to a boom for its fossil fuel power plants.
","elementId":"3d68dead-73b9-45cd-824c-d6ac1041ed90"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The Perth-based company said its adjusted pre-tax profits climbed to £2.18bn for the 12 months to the end of March, up from almost £1.16bn the year before.
","elementId":"04ed11b2-3436-458f-bc12-bca6404eea33"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The sharp increase in full-year profits came as earnings from its gas-fired power plants surged almost four-fold to £1.24bn for the last financial year, up from £331.1m the year before.
","elementId":"71a76e87-61d0-4a3b-a171-f56b72f06498"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The company has sought to downplay the soaring profits generated by its gas plants in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the jump in global energy market prices that has ignited calls for a windfall tax on the excess profits made by power generators and oil companies.
","elementId":"c556e719-a772-4cc9-8780-10b82ad59c16"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Shares in the company rose by 1.4% on Wednesday morning.
","elementId":"758c0741-f426-4ce9-8901-1937edc7ee25"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"You can read the full report here:
","elementId":"31d43937-e8e3-42ee-882e-63a91bfda2ef"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/24/energy-firm-sse-reports-near-doubling-of-annual-profits","text":"Energy firm SSE reports near doubling of annual profits ","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"66719aa3-4b36-4b4d-92f4-5270a9539848"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684916127000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"09.15BST","blockLastUpdated":1684916362000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"09.19BST","blockFirstPublished":1684916362000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"09.19BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"09.19","title":"Energy firm SSE reports near doubling of annual profits","contributors":[{"name":"Jillian Ambrose"}],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646dc0388f08059b06cb2301","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The inflation data has meant that a further interest rate hike at the Bank of England’s next monetary policy meeting is guaranteed, according to financial markets at least.
","elementId":"b4511db2-06d5-412b-8c4e-68607239dae8"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Economics correspondent Richard Partington reports:
","elementId":"91d79974-c7d4-4948-9fa4-0669ade087bd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"\n","elementId":"cde5bdb3-e757-4cf9-a26e-d089794fba77"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Markets are fully pricing in another Bank rate increase of a quarter point in June, with an outside chance of an even bigger half point rise. Markets anticipate the base rate could reach a peak of almost 5.4% before the end of the year, almost a whole percentage point higher than the current level.
\n
You can see what investors are thinking in the below table. The Bank of England’s bank rate rose to 4.5% earlier this month. Derivatives trades show that markets are fully pricing in a further increase on 22 June, with bank rate expected to rise to above 5.35% by December before dropping back.
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predict 100% chance of Bank of England rate hike in June","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646db7cc8f088e0216a840ff","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The financial market reaction on Wednesday morning has been focused not on inflation falling, but on it falling less than expected – consumer price index inflation hit 8.7% compared to average forecasts of 8.2% from economists.
","elementId":"455dd47e-d786-424c-ae9c-9bde55bd5c18"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"That has prompted a flurry of buying sterling on currency markets as traders reposition. The bet is that higher inflation persuades the Bank of England to raise interest rates further. That makes sterling more attractive because investors can make higher returns.
","elementId":"7d764956-c02d-4c19-9dec-3cd549f03651"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"You can see the effects in this chart showing the pound’s performance against the dollar overnight. It jumped as high as $1.2465 after the data was released, before dropping back.
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the time of writing sterling was up by 0.15% against the US dollar.
","elementId":"0b250683-ee6d-418a-897b-497261691312"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"It’s a selling day on the FTSE 100 – likely as traders adjust to the expectation of higher interest rates. The index has dropped by 1.6%.
","elementId":"97e1a42f-5974-43eb-81f7-d7a2b8904ba6"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Only two companies have increased share prices so far today: product testing company Intertek after it reported higher sales, and energy firm SSE, which reported big profits.
","elementId":"48226085-1b72-47e8-9b97-c55dcbe53c3e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The biggest fallers are property companies: Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt Developments and British Land are all down by between 3.6% and 4.6%.
","elementId":"1d27b85b-9e49-4d53-b3a2-2e29838a9c81"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684912076000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.07BST","blockLastUpdated":1684914222000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.43BST","blockFirstPublished":1684914222000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.43BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.43","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646dba9d8f08059b06cb22e9","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"UK inflation dropped to 8.7% in the year to April, the first time it has dropped below 10% since August and the lowest since March 2022.
","elementId":"0730aebf-2451-49f6-8e47-72d3f9f10cfe"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Yet that steep fall – long expected because of the big increase in energy prices in April 2022 – has not all been happy news. It was less dramatic than expected by economists.
","elementId":"fb091b5b-c773-440a-a199-242e12558d49"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Here is the full report by the Guardian’s Richard Partington:
","elementId":"20e6923c-27c1-459e-8ebf-dc3675794aba"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/24/uk-inflation-falls-cost-of-living-crisis","text":"UK inflation falls to 8.7% but food price rises remain close to 45-year high","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"d14ceca0-f805-4dc6-b09a-ad3a432e6ec4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"And core inflation, which attempts to measure the underlying price pressures, actually rose between March and April.
","elementId":"1251b6ba-72cb-43c2-ab40-355a3e1108c3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Meanwhile, the politically sensitive increases in food prices were sustained. Food prices rose by nearly a fifth during the year to April. Here are some of the components of that 19% food price inflation:
","elementId":"924b0197-f97c-42b2-ac63-30612613d33f"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"- \n
Sugar 47.4%
\n Olive oil 46.4%
\n Eggs 37%
\n Low-fat milk 33.5%
\n Cheese and curd 30.6%
\n Flours and other cereals 30%
\n Pasta products and couscous 27.7%
\n Ready-made meals 20.8%
\n Butter 20.1%
\n Bread 18.6%
\n Jams, marmalades and honey 17.9%
\n Fish 14.2%
\n Pizza and quiche 11.9%
\n Fruit 10.8%
\n
James Smith, a developed markets economist at ING, an investment bank, says:
","elementId":"9e05f630-d35c-4ec0-97aa-ac6d1c9a519d"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"\n","elementId":"6bc59f87-e808-4c09-9ee8-4e37a287219f"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":false,"summary":true},"blockCreatedOn":1684912797000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"08.19BST","blockLastUpdated":1684913723000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"08.35BST","blockFirstPublished":1684913723000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"08.35BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"08.35","title":"Inflation drops but prices of sugar, olive oil and eggs drive steep food price rises","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646dab338f087efbd541d788","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"UK inflation has come in higher than pretty much anyone, including members of the Bank of England’s committee, expected in April.
\nThis undoubtedly makes life harder for policymakers and no doubt raises the chance of yet another 25bp rate hike in June.
\nInstead, it’s food prices that are now the biggest headache. […] Assuming the most recent month-on-month increases in output prices were to continue through the remainder of this year, it implies that food inflation should be back to the 6% area or below by Christmas.
\n
While the overall drop in inflation will be welcomed, there is limited comfort when looking at food prices: prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 19% in the year to April.
","elementId":"b04e0045-981b-40e4-a1dc-5a5bcc898481"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"That was only a marginal drop from the 19.1% rate in March.
The Office for National Statistics’ indicative modelled estimates suggest that the annual rate for food and drink in April 2023 is the second highest seen for over 45 years, when the rate in August 1977 was estimated to be 21.9%.
","elementId":"818401f9-916b-41a3-829a-d8c18bb137cb"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684908851000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.14BST","blockLastUpdated":1684909172000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.19BST","blockFirstPublished":1684909172000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.19BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.19","title":"Food price inflation remains near 45-year high","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646da80b8f087efbd541d770","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Newsflash: UK consumer price index inflation has dropped to 8.7%, the lowest since March 2022.
","elementId":"25639454-8890-4e70-84b8-c35a56bf48fd"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"However, that was still higher than the average expectation of 8.2% in a poll of economists. More detail to come.
","elementId":"72de20bc-ba8c-4f4a-b5cb-def150de815f"}],"attributes":{"pinned":false,"keyEvent":true,"summary":false},"blockCreatedOn":1684908043000,"blockCreatedOnDisplay":"07.00BST","blockLastUpdated":1684908149000,"blockLastUpdatedDisplay":"07.02BST","blockFirstPublished":1684908149000,"blockFirstPublishedDisplay":"07.02BST","blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone":"07.02","title":"UK inflation drops to 8.7%","contributors":[],"primaryDateLine":"Wed 24 May 2023 15.50 BST","secondaryDateLine":"First published on Wed 24 May 2023 06.44 BST"},{"id":"646c7c168f08bd2efcb147a8","elements":[{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Good morning, and welcome to our live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
","elementId":"8d096097-e6e8-484b-9dd0-1a9bdd7d665e"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The surge in inflation over the last two years has become a key priority for the UK government. But since peaking at an annual rate of 11.1% in October – a 41-year high – inflation has been dropping back rapidly. Data to be published shortly will show whether price rises have slowed further.
","elementId":"9b88a9cb-7fdc-42a2-b803-b2a27a3125b5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Economists expect the annual rate of consumer price index inflation to fall from 10.1% in March to 8.2% in April, according to a poll by Reuters.
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surged since the start of the pandemic, but is now expected to drop back.","caption":"Consumer price index inflation has surged since the start of the pandemic, but is now expected to drop back.","credit":"Photograph: 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spike in inflation has two main causes: first, the disruption from the coronavirus pandemic that fouled up supply chains around the world and added costs; and second, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted chaos on global energy markets as countries around the world scrambled to find alternatives to Russian oil and gas. For the most part, they were successful, but prices nevertheless rose.
","elementId":"6ea44532-a22f-4cd6-b596-bf8e45e9a271"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/23/cpi-stagflation-uk-price-rises-key-inflation-terms","text":"From CPI to stagflation: how the UK tracks price rises and what key inflation terms mean","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"94f7d945-64e0-4554-bfc7-09ed909f8dfc"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"The energy crisis has been a significant contributor to more recent price increases. As the below chart from consultancy Oxford Economics shows, the products that take the most energy to make have been most affected by inflation.
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of England governor Andrew Bailey is making not one but two public appearances today. The Bank’s monetary policymakers will have to decide whether falling inflation means they should ease off further interest rates increases, or whether they are still uncomfortable with a rate that will almost certainly be well above their 2% target.
","elementId":"04ae49d3-1bd8-4d48-ba57-f6c14468d2ce"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"Bailey on Tuesday said he believed that inflation has “turned the corner”, which might suggest that further significant tightening of monetary policy through higher rates might not be necessary. On the other hand, a brighter economic outlook for the UK – recognised by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday – could give weight to the “hawks” on the monetary policy committee who want higher rates to keep on taming inflationary pressures.
","elementId":"30617636-922d-4b9f-8f2c-307c08e206c3"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/global/2023/may/23/imf-uk-recession-tax-cuts-jeremy-hunt-debt","text":"IMF says UK no longer heading for recession but urges against tax cuts","prefix":"Related: ","role":"thumbnail","elementId":"0b8f934f-af0c-4c3d-9f5b-31d02546d739"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement","html":"The agenda
","elementId":"1389fdb2-d830-4ac8-ab0c-bc85ca5a42b5"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"- \n
7am BST: UK inflation data (April; previous: 10.1% year-on-year; consensus: 8.2%)
\n 9am BST: Germany Ifo business climate index (May; prev.: 93.6 points; cons.: 93)
\n 10:30am BST: Andrew Bailey: speech at Mansion House net zero delivery summit
\n 11am BST: UK Confederation of British Industry industrial trends (May; prev.: -20 points; cons.: -19)
\n 2pm BST: Andrew Bailey: interview on “inflation and the economy”
\n
Les évènements clés
- Il y a 2jRésumé de clôture : le choc des données sur l'inflation augmente la perspective d'une hausse des taux au Royaume-Uni
- Il y a 2jAndrew Bailey : La ville se concentre sur les actifs sûrs qui freinent les investissements stimulant la croissance
- il y a 2jGouverneur de la Banque d'Angleterre: le Royaume-Uni n'est pas dans une "spirale" des salaires et des prix
- il y a 2jLe syndicat des postiers retarde le vote sur l'accord avec Royal Mail
- il y a 2jLa société énergétique SSE annonce un quasi-doublement de ses bénéfices annuels
- il y a 2jLes marchés prédisent 100% de chances d'une hausse des taux de la Banque d'Angleterre en juin
- il y a 2jL'inflation baisse mais les prix du sucre, de l'huile d'olive et des œufs entraînent une forte hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires
- il y a 2jL'inflation des prix des aliments reste proche de son plus haut niveau depuis 45 ans
- il y a 2jL'inflation au Royaume-Uni tombe à 8,7 %
- il y a 2jL'inflation au Royaume-Uni devrait passer en dessous de 10 %
il y a 2j08.35BST
L'inflation baisse mais les prix du sucre, de l'huile d'olive et des œufs entraînent une forte hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires
L'inflation au Royaume-Uni est tombée à 8,7% au cours de l'année jusqu'en avril, la première fois qu'elle est tombée en dessous de 10% depuis août et la plus basse depuis mars 2022.
Pourtant, cette forte chute - attendue depuis longtemps en raison de la forte augmentation des prix de l'énergie en avril 2022 - n'a pas été une bonne nouvelle. Elle a été moins dramatique que prévu par les économistes.
Voici le rapport complet de Richard Partington du Guardian :
Et l'inflation sous-jacente, qui tente de mesurer les pressions sous-jacentes sur les prix,en fait augmenté entre mars et avril.
Entre-temps, les augmentations politiquement sensibles des prix alimentaires se sont poursuivies. Les prix alimentaires ont augmenté de près d'un cinquième au cours de l'année jusqu'en avril. Voici quelques-uns des composants de ce19% d'inflation des prix alimentaires:
Sucre 47,4%
Huile d'olive 46,4%
Oeufs 37%
Lait écrémé 33,5%
Fromage et caillé 30,6%
Farines et autres céréales 30%
Produits de pâtes et couscous 27,7%
Plats cuisinés 20,8%
Beurre 20,1%
Pain 18,6%
Confitures, marmelades et miel 17,9%
Poisson 14,2%
Pizzas et quiches 11,9%
Fruits 10,8%
James Smith, économiste des marchés développés àING, une banque d'investissement, déclare :
L'inflation au Royaume-Uni a dépassé pratiquement tout le monde, y compris les membres du comité de la Banque d'Angleterre, attendus en avril.
Cela rend sans aucun doute la vie plus difficile pour les décideurs et augmente sans aucun doute la possibilité d'une nouvelle hausse des taux de 25 points de base en juin.
Au lieu de cela, ce sont les prix des denrées alimentaires qui sont désormais le plus gros casse-tête. […] En supposant que les augmentations mensuelles les plus récentes des prix à la production devaient se poursuivre jusqu'à la fin de cette année, cela implique que l'inflation des produits alimentaires devrait être de retour dans la zone de 6 % ou moins d'ici Noël.
il y a 2j08.04BST
Rachel Reeves, la chancelière fantôme du Labour, se concentre sur les prix alimentaires (tout comme son homologue conservateur).
– Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP)24 mai 2023La réalité des chiffres d'inflation d'aujourd'hui est la flambée des prix alimentaires qui restent élevés et frappent durement les familles.
Après 13 ans de gouvernement conservateur, jamais les gens n'ont payé autant mais n'ont reçu si peu en retour.
Le travail protégera les finances familiales et renforcera notre sécurité économique.
Mais c'est le chiffre de l'inflation sous-jacente qui attire l'attention de nombreux analystes.
L'inflation passe de 10,1% à 8,7% mais…
— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell)24 mai 2023
- mauvaise nouvelle pour la Banque d'Angleterre = l'inflation sous-jacente est passée de 6,2% à 6,8%.
- mauvaise nouvelle pour les familles = l'inflation des prix alimentaires est obstinément élevée à 19,1 % et occupe le devant de la scène dans la crise du coût de la vie
– Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop)24 mai 2023So-so Royaume-Uni#inflationdonnées.
La bonne nouvelle est que le taux global de l'IPC a fortement chuté, passant de 10,1 % à 8,7 %, mais cela s'explique entièrement par la baisse de#énergiel'inflation des prix.
Tout le reste a l'air collant 👇
Taux de base excl. l'alimentation et l'énergie ont atteint un nouveau sommet de 6,8 %, contre 6,2 %.pic.twitter.com/6bJgBdSqK8
il y a 2j07.57BST
L'inflation est le thème central de ce matinBulletin de la première édition– et son rédacteur en chef, Archie Bland, a discuté avec le correspondant économique du Guardian, Richard Partington, des raisons pour lesquelles le taux a baissé.
Il comprend cette explication pratique de ce que les économistes appellent les «effets de base» - ou pourquoi le fait que les prix restent les mêmes il y a un an entraîne une baisse du taux d'inflation global.
« Début avril 2022, il y avaitune augmentation d'environ 50 % des factures de gaz et d'électricitéquand Ofgem a augmenté le plafond des prix », a déclaré Richard. "C'était un chiffre éblouissant. Maintenant, la période de comparaison est avec le niveau déjà élevéaprèscette hausse s'est produite, donc le taux baisse. Effectivement, l'ONS a déclaré que les prix de l'électricité et du gaz ont contribué pour 1,42 point de pourcentage à la chute.
Et sur le dilemme de la Banque d'Angleterre :
"Les marchés financiers s'attendent à ce que la Banque augmente ses taux d'intérêt une fois de plus", a déclaré Richard. "Ils sont actuellement à 4,5% - le taux le plus élevé depuis 2008 - et on s'attend à ce qu'ils atteignent 4,75% puis y restent pendant un certain temps." Les chiffres de ce matin ne changent pas cette attente : les taux d'intérêt mettent un certain temps à se répercuter sur le taux d'inflation, il faudrait donc un écart vraiment radical par rapport à ce qui était prévu pour provoquer une évolution différente de celle déjà tracée.
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il y a 2j07.44BST
Le taux d'inflation global est peut-être en baisse, mais il y a aussi d'autres signes que le Royaume-Uni n'en a pas encore fini avec les pressions sur les prix : l'inflation sous-jacente est à son plus haut depuis 1992.
L'inflation sous-jacente est une mesure étroitement surveillée par les économistes car elle exclut les composants les plus volatils de l'indice - comme la nourriture, l'énergie, l'alcool et le tabac - dans le but de déterminer l'image sous-jacente.
Pour lebanque d'Angleterre, ce qui ajoute à la pression pour continuer à augmenter les taux d'intérêt afin de calmer l'inflation.
Paul Dale, économiste en chef britannique àÉconomie du capital, un cabinet de conseil, a déclaré :
La baisse plus faible que prévu de l'inflation de l'IPC de 10,1 % en mars à 8,7 % en avril (BoE 8,4 %, consensus 8,2 %, CE 8,0 %) signifie qu'il est désormais très difficile d'imaginer que la Banque d'Angleterre ne relève pas ses taux d'intérêt de 4,50% à 4,75% en juin.
"La majeure partie de la chute était due à une chute de l'inflation des prix des services publics", a-t-il noté.
Mais beaucoup plus important a été le large rebond inquiétant de l'inflation sous-jacente de 6,2% en mars à 6,8% en avril (consensus 6,2%, CE 6,1%). Cela l'a amené au-dessus de ce que nous pensions tous être le pic de 6,5% en septembre de l'année dernière et au taux le plus élevé depuis 1992.
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Jeremy Hunt a déclaré que l'inflation des prix des denrées alimentaires augmentait encore trop rapidement – une reconnaissance de son importance politique.
La réduction de moitié de l'inflation est l'un des cinq objectifs clés du gouvernement (même s'il est presque certain qu'il l'atteindra, car les effets des augmentations précédentes des prix de l'énergie se répercutent sur les données).
Hunt, le chancelier, a déclaré:
Le FMI a déclaré hier que nous avions agi de manière décisive pour lutter contre l'inflation, mais bien qu'il soit positif qu'elle soit désormais à un chiffre, les prix des denrées alimentaires augmentent encore trop rapidement. Ainsi, en plus d'aider les familles avec environ 3 000 £ de soutien au coût de la vie cette année et l'année dernière, nous devons nous en tenir résolument au plan de réduction de l'inflation.
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Ce graphique de l'Office for National Statistics montre à quel point l'inflation des prix des denrées alimentaires a été forte au cours de la dernière année.
L'inflation des prix alimentaires est particulièrement importante car elle est durement ressentie par les ménages les plus pauvres, qui consacrent une plus grande proportion de leurs revenus aux produits de première nécessité.
(Veuillez noter que ce graphique montre l'indice des prix à la consommation légèrement différent, y compris les coûts de logement des propriétaires occupants, ou CPIH, que l'ONS insiste pour utiliser. Pour l'instant, lebanque d'Angleterreet d'autres regardent toujours l'indice des prix à la consommation, ou IPC, dont nous citons également.)
il y a 2j07.19BST
L'inflation des prix alimentaires reste proche de son plus haut niveau depuis 45 ans
Bien que la baisse globale de l'inflation soit la bienvenue, le confort des prix alimentaires est limité : les prix des aliments et des boissons non alcoolisées ont augmenté de 19 % sur l'année jusqu'en avril.
Ce n'était qu'une baisse marginale par rapport au taux de 19,1 % en mars.
Le Bureau des statistiques nationalesestimations modélisées indicativessuggèrent que le taux annuel des aliments et boissons en avril 2023 est le deuxième plus élevé observé depuis plus de 45 ans, alors que le taux en août 1977 était estimé à 21,9 %.
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Comme prévu, ce sont les prix de l'énergie qui ont causé la forte baisse de l'inflation annuelle au cours de l'année jusqu'en avril.
Le Royaume-UniBureau des statistiques nationalesa dit:
Les prix de l'électricité et du gaz ont contribué à hauteur de 1,42 point de pourcentage à la baisse de l'inflation annuelle en avril, la hausse d'avril dernier ayant été retirée de la comparaison annuelle, mais cette composante a tout de même contribué à hauteur de 1,01 point de pourcentage à l'inflation annuelle.
À la même époque l'année dernière, les prix mondiaux de l'énergie avaient bondi après l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie. Ces hausses de prix sont maintenant intégrées dans les chiffres, de sorte que le chiffre de l'inflation globale est en baisse.
il y a 2j07.02BST
L'inflation au Royaume-Uni tombe à 8,7%
Flash d'information: L'inflation de l'indice des prix à la consommation au Royaume-Uni est tombée à 8,7 %, le plus bas depuis mars 2022.
Cependant, c'était toujours plus élevé que l'attente moyenne de 8,2% dans un sondage d'économistes. Plus de détails à venir.
il y a 2j06.44BST
L'inflation au Royaume-Uni devrait passer sous les 10 %
Bonjour et bienvenue dans notre couverture en direct et continue des affaires, de l'économie et des marchés financiers.
La flambée de l'inflation au cours des deux dernières années est devenue une priorité essentielle pour le gouvernement britannique. Mais depuis qu'il a culminé àun taux annuel de 11,1 % en octobre– un plus haut en 41 ans – l'inflation a chuté rapidement. Les données qui seront publiées prochainement montreront si les hausses de prix ont encore ralenti.
Les économistes s'attendent à ce que le taux annuel d'inflation de l'indice des prix à la consommation passe de 10,1 % en mars à 8,2 % en avril, selon un sondage de Reuters.
La flambée de l'inflation a deux causes principales : premièrement, la perturbation de la pandémie de coronavirus qui a encrassé les chaînes d'approvisionnement dans le monde entier et augmenté les coûts ; et deuxièmement, l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, qui a provoqué le chaos sur les marchés mondiaux de l'énergie alors que les pays du monde entierbrouillé pour trouver des alternatives au pétrole et au gaz russes. Pour la plupart, ils ont réussi, mais les prix ont néanmoins augmenté.
La crise de l'énergie a largement contribué aux récentes augmentations de prix. Comme le tableau ci-dessous du cabinet de conseil OxfordÉconomiemontre, les produits qui demandent le plus d'énergie à fabriquer ont été les plus touchés par l'inflation.
Le gouverneur de la Banque d'Angleterre, Andrew Bailey, fait non pas une mais deux apparitions publiques aujourd'hui. Les responsables de la politique monétaire de la Banque devront décider si la baisse de l'inflation signifie qu'ils doivent atténuer de nouvelles hausses des taux d'intérêt ou s'ils sont toujours mal à l'aise avec un taux qui sera presque certainement bien supérieur à leur objectif de 2 %.
Bailey a déclaré mardi qu'ilcroyaient que l'inflation avait « tourné le coin », ce qui pourrait suggérer qu'un nouveau resserrement significatif de la politique monétaire par le biais de taux plus élevés pourrait ne pas être nécessaire. D'un autre côté, de meilleures perspectives économiques pour le Royaume-Uni – reconnues par le Fonds monétaire international mardi – pourraient donner du poids aux «faucons» du comité de politique monétaire qui souhaitent des taux plus élevés pour continuer à maîtriser les pressions inflationnistes.
L'agenda
7h00 BST: Données sur l'inflation au Royaume-Uni (avril ; précédent : 10,1 % en glissement annuel ; consensus : 8,2 %)
9h00 BST: Indice Ifo du climat des affaires en Allemagne (mai ; préc. : 93,6 points ; cons. : 93)
10h30 BST: Andrew Bailey: discours au sommet de la livraison nette zéro de Mansion House
11h BST: Tendances industrielles de la Confédération britannique de l'industrie britannique (mai ; préc. : -20 points ; cons. : -19)
14h00 BST: Andrew Bailey : interview sur « l'inflation et l'économie »